Fewer than 40% of UK households could be paying for a TV licence in the next decade
Key Points
- Fewer than 40% of households could pay for a licence by 2038
- 27 million homes own a TV but under 24 million hold a licence
- Evasion stood at 11.93% in 2025/26
- No-licence declarations cost the BBC about £323 million
- MPs want a device-neutral licence from January 2028
Fewer than 40% of UK households could be paying for a TV licence by 2037/38 if current trends continue.
The forecast appears in evidence to the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee, which published its BBC Royal Charter review report on Thursday (1 October). Campaign groups Reset Tech and the Media Reform Coalition submitted the projections.
More than 27 million UK households own a TV, but fewer than 24 million TV licences are in force, according to BBC data.
The evasion rate stood at 11.93% in 2025/26.
A further 3.7 million households had declared that they do not need a licence as of 31 March 2026, up 1.7% on the previous year.
BBC research suggests around half of those households still watch content that requires a licence. The BBC puts the resulting lost income at about £323 million.
The BBC told MPs that 94% of people use its services each month, while only 80% of households pay.
Director-General Matt Brittin said the BBC had lost between £1.2 billion and £1.3 billion of licence fee funding over the past ten years. He said 40% of that drop came from fewer households paying.
The licence fee rose to £180 on 1 April 2026.
Collecting the fee cost the BBC £166 million in 2024/25. The BBC also funded 827,000 free licences for over-75s on pension credit in 2025/26.
Brittin told MPs that the BBC’s production costs are rising by 7% a year.
The committee concluded that the BBC as it exists today would not survive the next Charter period if the government fails to act and non-payment continues.
It recommended broadening the licence fee from January 2028 so that it no longer depends on owning a TV, in exchange for a lower individual cost.
