Schools around the UK are facing financial peril as people have fewer children and empty placements surge.
Urgent action is needed by the Department for Education to provide coordinated support to the school sector to manage local authorities’ reaction to a steady drop in the number of pupils looking for placements.
This is according to a report from the National Audit Office (NAO), which said that after over a decade of many schools creating more school places, a decreasing birthrate means that national demand for primary school places is now falling.
It highlighted that despite pupil numbers in primary schools falling since 2018, the government has until now only provided limited support to manage the risks associated with this reduced demand.
Since 2018/2019, demand for primary school places fell by 3% and unfilled school places rose by 14%. A further 7% drop in demand for primary school places is expected by 2030 nationally, although in specific areas this is expected to be higher.
Demand is also set to fall from 2026 for secondary schools.
School funding is based on pupil numbers, and more empty placements could place schools in financial peril. The NAO estimates that a projected reduction of 56,300 fewer primary school pupils in 2027 could mean that schools receive £288 million less in per-pupil funding.
The NAO acknowledged that the Department for Education has recently begun considering the risks of falling demand for school places, but it urged the government to react quicker to counter the risks of this decline.
“After a long period of increasing demand for school places, we are now seeing an overall fall in primary school pupil numbers with local variation,” said NAO head Gareth Davies.
“This will require a targeted response from DfE, local authorities, academy trusts and individual schools, in order to protect educational outcomes and value for money.”
Child-free London and falling fertility
The biggest factors affecting pupil demand in the United Kingdom include birth rates and migration.
This is bad news for primary and secondary schools, as fertility rates are at record lows in England and Wales, with an average of just 1.41 children being born per woman in 2024.
Fertility rates also vary wildly based on region. The highest fertility rate of 2.0 was recorded in Luton, while in the City of London, the fertility rate was 0.32 children per woman.
Even the highest fertility rate recorded in England and Wales is below the replacement rate, which is the ratio of children born per woman required for a country’s population to remain stable without any net immigration.
In fact, if it were not for immigration, Britain’s population would be declining at a quickening pace.
Last year, the Office for National Statistics projected that migration will be the sole cause of UK population growth for the next 25 years.
The UK’s ageing native population and declining fertility rate spells bad news for schools unless they react quickly, and the effects will be felt in some areas far more than in others.
In London, there is growing concern that the capital is becoming a child-free city, with the number of births falling steadily since 2012.
20% fewer births were recorded in 2023 than in 2012, which is set to impact London’s schools, businesses, and the city’s wider economy.
Many primary schools and nurseries in inner London have closed or merged as parents move to outer boroughs and out of the city entirely.
Previous analysis of the problem by London Councils found that the decline in children growing up in London is due to the high cost of living and the cost of purchasing or renting a home suitable for a family in the capital.
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