Migration will be the sole cause of UK population growth for the next 25 years
The population of the United Kingdom is expected to grow to over 76 million by 2047, thanks solely to net migration.
This is according to the latest population projection data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which cites projections based on historical population data up to mid-2022.
The projections estimate that over the 25-year period between mid-2022 and mid-2047, the UK’s overall population will grow by almost 9 million people.
Without migration, however, the UK’s population would be falling. Over the 10 years between mid-2022 and mid-2032, there are projected to be around 17,000 more deaths than births.
By mid-2047, the ONS projects that every year 107,000 more people will die than be born in the United Kingdom.
During this period up to mid-2032, it is projected that:
- 6,790,000 people will be born
- 6,807,000 people will die
- 9,914,000 people will immigrate long term to the UK
- 4,978,000 people will emigrate long term from the UK
During the same decade, it is projected that net migration will be 4.9 million people. Net migration refers to the difference between the number of people immigrating to the UK and those emigrating to live elsewhere.
“Net migration is projected to be the only source of population growth in the UK over the next 25 years,” the ONS said.
“Over the 25-year period between mid-2022 and mid-2047 it is projected that there will be 1.1 million more deaths than births.”
“During this period, it is projected that the population will grow by 8.9 million, with projected net migration totalling 10.0 million.”
Annual net migration is projected to decline until mid-2028, after which this figure is projected to remain roughly constant at a positive net migration 340,000 per year.
The ONS noted, however, that demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain, and this averaging out of migration is just a single scenario assumed for the purpose of the projection.
The image below shows projected births minus deaths and net international migration in the United Kingdom for the projected period up to mid-2047.
