Britain’s post-industrial cities are increasingly turning away from the political center ground, favouring populist insurgents, Reform UK on the right, and the Green Party on the left.
New polling data by Bloomberg and More in Common shows that across nine major constituencies, in a hypothetical general election, Reform and the Greens would outperform both Labour and the Conservatives combined.
The warning signs became reality in last week’s Manchester by-election in Gorton and Denton, where the Greens secured a key victory, pushing Labour into a humiliating third place.
The win, under new Green leader Zack Polanski’s populist environmental and social justice platform, has supercharged the party’s momentum.
Labour and the Conservatives tied at a poor 16% each (both down 2 points), marking Labour’s lowest support on record. The Liberal Democrats held steady at 14%.
The Greens’ leap was fueled significantly by the publicity surrounding their Manchester triumph, with pollsters noting voters no longer viewing them as a “wasted vote.”
The party has seen explosive membership growth, adding over 15,000 members in the week following the by-election, pushing totals above 215,000. Support is particularly strong among younger voters and women, with the Greens topping preferences among under-50s in several breakdowns.
Meanwhile, Reform UK continues to lead nationally in many aggregators, with POLITICO’s Poll of Polls placing them at 26%, ahead of the Conservatives (17%), Labour (16%), and Greens (15%).
In polarised urban settings, the dynamic is even more pronounced: the Greens dominate in places like London as a strong second, while in parts of the north, Labour has fallen to third behind insurgents.
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