The Green Party just leapfrogged Labour in the polls – and it’s a massive wake up call for Keir Starmer
The Green Party has surged past the governing Labour Party in national voting intention for the first time, according to a new YouGov poll for Sky News and The Times.
Conducted over the weekend of 1-2 March 2026, the survey places Reform UK in the lead at 23% (down one point from the previous week), with the Greens rocketing up 4 points to 21%, their highest-ever recorded level by YouGov.
Labour and the Conservatives are tied at 16% each (both down two points), while the Liberal Democrats hold steady at 14%.
This marks Labour’s lowest score on record in YouGov tracking and represents a dramatic collapse for Keir Starmer’s party less than two years after its landslide general election victory in 2024.
A historic election
The catalyst for the Greens’ breakthrough appears to be their historic win in last week’s Gorton and Denton by-election, where Green candidate Hannah Spencer, a councillor and plumber, secured the seat with 14,980 votes, pushing Labour into a humiliating third place behind Reform UK.
The victory, in what was once a safe Labour stronghold, has transformed perceptions of the Greens as a viable electoral force rather than a protest vote.
Anthony Wells, YouGov’s head of global polling, attributed much of the surge to this momentum: the by-election publicity demonstrated that “if people vote Green, they can get Green,” making the party seem like a realistic choice for disillusioned voters.
The Greens now dominate among younger demographics, topping preferences in every age group under 50. A remarkable 49% of 18- to 24-year-olds back the party, along with 27% of those aged 25-49.
Support is broadening beyond traditional white-collar environmentalists, with notable gains among voters in routine and manual occupations.
Among those who voted Labour in 2024, only 37% say they would do so again. A full 25% are now switching to the Greens, with others drifting to the Lib Dems or simply disengaging.
A big problem for Labour
The poll underscores deepening turmoil inside Labour. Internal factions are clashing over how to respond. Some MPs and activists argue for a sharper leftward shift on issues like immigration and economic policy to recapture progressive voters, while others warn that any softening could alienate the centrist and working-class coalition that delivered Starmer’s 2024 majority.
Already facing criticism over policy choices, economic headwinds, and perceived drift, the prime minister now confronts a multi-front threat: Reform UK eroding support on the right and in working-class areas, while the Greens siphon off younger and left-leaning voters who once formed Labour’s core base.
With the Greens now within touching distance of Reform UK and commanding unprecedented visibility, Labour risks being squeezed from both sides in future contests.
