Net migration statistics published today by ONS could show a fall to pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – but new research suggests the public may not notice.
The Immigration Attitudes Tracker research, published today (27 November) by Ipsos and think tank British Future, finds only 16% of the public expect net migration to be lower in one year’s time, despite net migration halving last year and continuing to fall. More than twice as many people (38%) expect net migration to increase, with 31% expecting it to remain the same.
Most of the public also thinks net migration increased last year – when in fact numbers halved. The new findings show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Yet the last set of net migration statistics showed that 2024 numbers more than halved to 345,000 from 848,000 a year earlier.
The new report finds that while attitudes to immigration are becoming more polarised, there remains a large group it terms the ‘Balancer Middle’, holding nuanced views and recognising both the pressures and gains that immigration can bring.
At the same time it notes the ‘rise of the rejectionists’: a growing, aggrieved and vocal minority who see no positive impacts from immigration to the UK.
Asked to rate the impact of immigration on the UK from 0 (negative) to 10 (positive), 16% now give the most negative zero score , up from 7% in June/July 2021. Overall 42% rate immigration’s impact on Britain as 0-4 out of 10 (up 5pts since last year), and 38% score it 6-10 (-2).
Four in ten people (41%) want immigration numbers reduced ‘a lot’, with a further 16% wanting more modest reductions. Just over a third of people (35%) want numbers to stay the same (21%) or increase (15%).
People struggle, however, to say what migration for work they would cut – only a minority would reduce migration for study, or indeed for work in most occupations tested in the research, such as doctors, care workers, lorry drivers, restaurant & catering staff or seasonal farm workers.
The public also significantly overestimates the proportion of immigration made up of people seeking asylum. On average, people think asylum makes up one third (33%) of all immigration to the UK, more than work (27%) or study (21%). In fact around 14% of immigration was for asylum in the year ending June 2025. Six times as many people came for work and study in the UK.
Growing disquiet
This is a problem for the government because asylum is the focus of public disquiet about immigration. Dissatisfaction with how the government is dealing with immigration is at 56% – an increase from 48% in last summer’s tracker post-election (though still lower than the 69% who felt dissatisfied with the Conservative government in the February 2024 tracker).
Of those who are dissatisfied, the most common reason given – by 73% of dissatisfied respondents – is that “The government is not doing enough to stop migrant channel crossings”. The other top reasons given are “Being too generous to migrants/asylum seekers,” (65%) and “Allowing too many people to claim asylum in Britain” (63%).
The findings illuminate the limitations of an immigration debate focused largely on asylum and on competing promises to reduce net migration numbers, says British Future.
Public trust on immigration has been significantly undermined by successive governments making big promises to cut immigration numbers and ‘stop the boats’ but failing to deliver, it says.
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