For many parents, securing a home within the catchment area of a top-rated state school has long been a strategic, and often costly, move.
But new research from Hamptons shows that this long-standing premium may be softening, opening up new opportunities for families to buy into desirable school zones without the usual financial stretch.
The shift is rooted in a demographic trend that’s been quietly reshaping the education system since 2020: a sustained decline in birth rates.
As fewer children enter the school system, the number of applications for primary school places has steadily dropped. Department for Education figures show a fall from a peak of over 641,000 applications in 2016/17 to just 550,270 this academic year.
This drop in demand is prompting schools – particularly in urban areas -to widen their catchment boundaries in search of pupils. In Inner London, primary applications have declined by almost a quarter, or 23%, since the 2016/17 peak, while in Outer London, they have fallen by 17%.
Outside the capital, the picture is more nuanced. While pupil numbers are falling, the number of places has remained relatively stable, meaning catchment areas may continue to stretch for a little further.
The most competitive schools
Looking in detail at the 20 most competitive primary schools to get into – those that made offers to the smallest share of pupils who listed them as their first choice – some have seen significantly higher demand than last year.
St Thomas Church of England Primary in Birmingham made offers to just 38% of first preferences this academic year, a decline from 60% compared to 2024/5.
A detached house in this catchment area costs an average of £436,706. Similarly, Bradley Stoke Community School near Bristol offered places to 42% of first-choice applicants, a 39% reduction compared to the previous year. A detached house in this catchment area costs £556,871 on average.
Yet not all schools are seeing rising competition. Barons Court Primary in Southend-on-Sea, the most sought-after school in the East of England, made offers to 38% of first-choice applicants this year, a 5% annual increase; detached houses in the catchment area cost an average of £625,916.
Even Fox Primary in Kensington and Chelsea, Inner London’s most competitive school, saw a modest 1% rise in first-choice offers, admitting 35% of applicants. Of course, homes here aren’t cheap, with a detached house averaging £4.15 million.
The trend won’t be limited to primary schools forever. The effects of declining birth rates will start to ripple through to secondary education. Applications for state secondary schools peaked at 619,991 in 2023/4 and have since declined marginally to 597,670 in the most recent academic year. Meanwhile, the number of state secondary places available has reduced only slightly, from 655,911 to 651,810.
This suggests that the same catchment expansion seen at the primary level increasingly begins to filter through to secondary schools—particularly non-selective ones—as smaller cohorts move up through the system.
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