2025 was expected to be a challenging year for the UK labour market, and at roughly the mid-point of the year, that’s largely proven to be the case.
New data from Indeed shows entry-level jobs have been hit hard. As of 13 June, graduate roles were down 12% on last year and were pacing at their weakest level since at least 2018, weaker even than their share in 2020 and 2021 when the pandemic made it difficult for employers to assimilate new joiners.
The scarcity of graduate positions comes as many employers have been holding on to existing staff while cutting back on new hires. Some observers, meanwhile, contend that entry-level roles in professional occupations are particularly exposed to AI displacement, though it’s hard to disentangle any potential impact here given the broader caution towards hiring overall in the present environment, Indeed said.
The job market is stagnant
While graduate-level jobs are hard to come by, Indeed’s data shows there has been a broad malaise across the job market.
UK job postings have continued to fall in recent months, though the pace of decline has remained steady rather than showing any real signs of acceleration.
As of 13 June, overall UK job postings were down 5% from their level at the end of Q1. They now sit 21% below their 1 February 2020, pre-pandemic baseline. Notably, the UK remains an outlier among peer economies in Europe and the US, where job postings remain above the baseline.
The ratio of unemployed people for each vacancy has increased from 1 in 2022 to 2.2 as of April 2025, but remains below its historical average of 2.8.
Despite concerns that April’s hike in employment costs may have led companies to lay off staff, the number of potential redundancies notified to the government has remained low, with little sign of any uptick in recent months.
“2025 was expected to be a challenging year for the UK labour market, and at roughly the mid-point of the year, that’s largely proven to be the case,” Indeed said.
“That said, the market has weathered headwinds reasonably well, including a nationwide increase in employment costs and ongoing global volatility, and has experienced only a continued gradual softening rather than a nosedive.
“Economic forecasts have generally been trimmed since the start of the year, with the UK expected to see muted growth in 2025. On the plus side, real wage growth remains positive, cushioning consumer spending, and some areas of the economy are set to see a boost through higher government expenditure.”
Leave a Reply