Burnham opens door to a cabinet reshuffle and early election if he replaces Starmer as PM
Key Points
- Andy Burnham has not ruled out an early general election if he becomes Prime Minister, with allies wargaming a snap vote to secure a personal mandate.
- Labour MPs want any snap election ruled out, fearing they would lose seats with the party trailing Reform UK.
- Burnham must first win the Makerfield by-election on 18 June, where a Survation poll gives him a 43% to 40% lead over Reform UK.
- Winning the seat would force Burnham to resign as Mayor of Greater Manchester and trigger a mayoral by-election by 6 August.
- Polymarket ranks Burnham the most likely next Prime Minister at 56% for 2026.
Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has left open the possibility of calling an early general election if he replaces Keir Starmer as Prime Minister this summer.
Burnham has not committed to an early election in public, but Labour sources told Bloomberg that some of his supporters want him to seek his own mandate from voters shortly after entering Downing Street.
Supporters argue that a personal mandate would let Burnham pursue a more radical programme with a full term to deliver it, while others fear the move would enrage Labour MPs worried about losing their seats.
The same reporting states that allies have started drawing up plans for his first months in office, including the option of going back to the country.
The prospect alarms much of the Parliamentary Labour Party. A senior Labour source said MPs would hate a snap election because they fear losing their seats, and that Burnham would be expected to promise the party he would not call one, with colleagues wanting him to sign that pledge “in blood”.
Labour trails Reform UK in national polling, which sharpens the risk for backbenchers who would otherwise have until 2029 before facing voters.
A vital by-election
None of this happens unless Burnham first returns to the House of Commons. He is standing in the Makerfield by-election on 18 June.
Josh Simons resigned the seat on 14 May to clear a path for the mayor, the first time since the 1965 Leyton by-election that a contest has been engineered to hand a seat to a figure outside Parliament.
Survation’s first constituency poll of 504 voters between 18 and 22 May put Burnham on 43% and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon on 40%, with Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd on 7%, the Liberal Democrats on 4%, the Greens on 3% and the Conservatives on 2%.
Makerfield is a marginal that Labour won with 45.2% in 2024 against Reform’s 31.8%, a gap that has narrowed sharply since.
Winning the seat is the prerequisite for a leadership challenge, which Burnham is widely expected to mount against Starmer. A victory would force him to resign as Mayor of Greater Manchester immediately, triggering a mayoral by-election that must be held by 6 August.
Bloomberg reports that 97 Labour MPs were calling on Starmer to resign or set a timetable for his departure after the party’s local election losses, and the prediction market Polymarket has ranked Burnham the most likely next Prime Minister at 56% for 2026 against a 26% chance Starmer keeps the job this year.
Burnham’s team has begun planning a Cabinet reshuffle, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood tipped to become Chancellor and Lucy Powell and Angela Rayner expected to return to senior roles.
Wes Streeting, who quit as Health Secretary and is himself viewed as a leadership contender, has endorsed Burnham as the candidate with the best chance of winning Makerfield.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy has said any change of Labour leader would probably force the party into an early election regardless.
