NHS to hire 380,000 fewer staff as AI takes over: report

The NHS is planning to hire up to 380,000 fewer staff over the next decade and use AI to fill the gap, according to a draft workforce plan.

The draft, first reported by the Financial Times and drawn up while Wes Streeting was Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, argues that the staffing trajectory set out in the 2023 NHS Long Term Workforce Plan is unaffordable.

“This is a path to financial ruin and would bankrupt both the health service and the country,” it says.

The 2023 plan set out a 10-year route to grow the NHS in England from 1.4 million to 2.3 million staff by the mid-2030s, with annual increases of 2.6% to 2.9%. The new approach downgrades annual growth to 1.1% to 2%, cutting the projected workforce by up to 380,000 people.

The draft argues that the 50% rise in doctor numbers over the past decade has not improved patient access, experience or outcomes, and that productivity has fallen instead. To make up the shortfall, it envisages wider use of AI, including direct substitution for staff roles.

The draft proposes that autonomous AI should be used in treatment to frame consultations, flag risk levels and identify key information from patient data. Staff who deliver sustained productivity gains through technology would be rewarded through bonuses or extra time off.

Streeting resigned as Health Secretary last week, attacking Prime Minister Keir Starmer and announcing that he wants to succeed him.

His successor, James Murray, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, previously served as Chief Secretary to the Treasury under Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.

Murray has not yet formally reviewed the proposals but is reported to be sympathetic, and the plan is due to be published within weeks, the Financial Times reports.

A big cut to nurses

Nursing reportedly faces the largest cut. The draft proposes an increase of around 50,000 nurses over the next decade, down from 170,000 to 190,000 under the 2023 plan.

GP numbers would rise by up to 49,000 by 2035, 23% more than the previous plan envisaged, as the government seeks to move care closer to home.

The draft says the NHS is likely to have enough doctors to meet forecast demand by 2034/35, and proposes letting staff swap some pension contributions for higher pay to slow departures.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies previously estimated that the 2023 plan would see the NHS employing 9% of all workers in England by 2036/37, up from 6%, adding around £50 billion in costs.

A single shared record

The workforce plan’s AI ambitions depend on data infrastructure that ministers are still legislating for.

The NHS Modernisation Bill, introduced by Health Minister Karin Smyth on Thursday (14 May), creates a single shared medical record for every patient in England, with clinicians gaining access from 2027 starting with maternity and frailty care.

All NHS providers, including hospitals and GPs, will have to share data so staff can see a patient’s full history wherever they are treated. The Bill also abolishes NHS England, transferring its functions to the Department of Health and Social Care.

The Single Patient Record is the data layer the workforce plan’s autonomous AI tools would draw on to frame consultations and flag patient risk.

Patient groups have backed the bill but warned that any use of data beyond direct care needs clear safeguards and transparent access rules.

Jacob Lant, Chief Executive at National Voices, an umbrella body for health and care charities, said setting out the record in primary legislation gives Parliament the chance to scrutinise it, unlike previous NHS data sharing plans.

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