Every four years, economists at Panmure Liberum dust off their econometric models and do what they do best: make bold, data-driven forecasts that have absolutely nothing to do with bond yields or inflation – at least on paper.
This time, research analyst Joachim Klement has released the firm’s tongue-in-cheek but eerily accurate predictions for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
Klement’s proprietary model has correctly called the last three champions, Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022, giving him a perfect 100% track record.
The model blends hard economic and demographic data (GDP per capita, population size, average temperature, host-nation advantage, and current FIFA rankings) with a healthy dose of randomness to account for the chaos of single-elimination football.
It explains roughly 55% of historical World Cup outcomes, with the rest left to luck, upsets, and penalty shootouts.
Here are the predictions.
The three biggest surprises
- Japan pulls off one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history by knocking out Brazil in the round of 32.
- Another all-European semi-final, the sixth time this has happened in 26 tournaments.
- An unlikely champion finally ends decades of near-misses.
The knockout path to glory
The tournament’s expanded 48-team format means 32 teams advance from the group stage (including the eight best third-place sides). From there, the model sees a brutal path forward:
- Round of 32 highlight: Japan stuns five-time champion Brazil in what the report calls one of the tournament’s defining shocks. Argentina advances past Uruguay, while traditional powers like Germany, France, Spain, England, Portugal, and the Netherlands all progress.
- Round of 16: France eliminates Germany in a heavyweight clash. England cruises past South Korea, the Netherlands handles Canada, and Portugal sees off Switzerland.
- Quarter-finals: England knocks out Japan (avenging a recent friendly loss). Portugal edges Argentina in extra time. Spain dispatches Belgium. And in a major shock, the Netherlands beats France 1-0 thanks to an own goal.
- Semi-finals (all European, as predicted): Netherlands defeats Spain on penalties in a tense, low-scoring affair. Portugal gets past England in a tight contest that the model says comes down to luck and squad depth.
- The Final: Netherlands vs. Portugal – two footballing powerhouses that have never lifted the World Cup trophy.
The winner, according to Panmure Liberum will be the Netherlands.
The Dutch, long regarded as the best team never to win the World Cup (three final losses), finally break through. The report envisions a gritty 1-0 final decided by a penalty, with the Netherlands grinding out hard-fought victories throughout the later stages while Portugal battles through its own tough bracket.
Why this matters to markets (yes, really)
The report isn’t just fun and games. It cites academic research showing real financial ripple effects from the World Cup:
- The US stock market historically underperforms by 3.9% during the tournament as investors get distracted.
- Local markets in countries that win matches tend to rise the next trading day, driven by sentiment and risk appetite.
- Host-nation announcements can even trigger negative abnormal returns for countries that lose the bid.
Klement stresses the note is “very much tongue in cheek” and has “absolutely nothing to do with investments – or has it?”
He warns readers not to bet their life savings on the model, noting that even a broken clock (or a lucky economist) is right three times in a row sometimes.
Still, with bookmakers currently favouring Spain (5/1), France (6/1), England (13/2), and Argentina (17/2), Panmure Liberum’s call for the Netherlands as champion stands out as genuinely contrarian – and, if history is any guide, potentially prescient.
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