British shoppers are reacting with caution to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, stockpiling fuel and scaling back international travel plans amid surging prices at the pump and fears over further disruption, according to new data from Barclays.
The bank’s latest consumer spending trends report for March 2026 reveals that overall card spending rose a modest 0.9% year-on-year, a slowdown from February’s 1% increase and below the latest CPIH inflation rate of 3.4%.
While many categories showed resilience, essential spending returned to growth for the first time since July 2025, up 0.5%, largely driven by fuel.
Fuel spending increased 1.6% year-on-year in March, marking the category’s first uplift since February 2023. The surge was particularly pronounced in the week commencing 28 February, when spending jumped 10.9% as drivers rushed to fill up ahead of anticipated price rises triggered by the conflict. Spending later normalised through the rest of the month.
The data aligns with reports of record fuel price climbs linked to the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which has pushed global oil prices higher and disrupted supply routes.
UK petrol and diesel prices have risen sharply since late February, with averages reaching levels not seen since late 2022 in some cases. Motorists have faced consecutive daily increases, adding significantly to the cost of filling a family car.
Travel in trouble
Travel spending took a sharper hit, declining 3.3% year-on-year – the first drop since March 2021, before COVID-19 restrictions fully lifted, and ending five years of consistent growth.
Airlines saw spending fall 4.1%, travel agents 4.6%, and public transport 2.9%. In contrast, spending on hotels, resorts, and accommodation edged up 1.2%, suggesting a shift toward domestic “staycations,” particularly around the Easter break.
Barclays’ consumer confidence research, conducted with Opinium among 2,000 UK adults at the end of March, underscores the anxiety driving these shifts.
70% of respondents expressed concern about rising travel costs, up 11 percentage points from the previous month, while 57% worried about potential disruption from the Middle East conflict. Eleven percent said they were actively cancelling intended travel plans.
Cost-of-living worries
Broader cost-of-living worries have also intensified. 86% are concerned about rising food prices (up 10 points), 85% about energy prices (up 4 points), and 83% about household bills (up 7 points). 14% of consumers reported delaying major purchases or building savings buffers in response to Middle East uncertainty, with 74% agreeing that ongoing tensions will continue impacting living costs for the rest of the year.
“March’s figures may highlight some differences between how consumers feel and how they actually spend,” said Karen Johnson, Head of Retail at Barclays.
“Cost-of-living concerns and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on confidence, prompting caution but spending remains resilient across several categories.”
Jack Meaning, Chief UK Economist at Barclays, added that the shock from the Middle East is reinforcing expectations of muted economic activity ahead.
“Shoppers delaying major purchases and building up a savings buffer reinforces our view that activity will be muted in the coming months,” he said, noting implications for the Bank of England’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Despite the pressures, overall consumer resilience persists. 71% remain confident in their ability to live within their means, and 67% in their household finances.
Non-travel discretionary areas showed strength, with clothing and footwear up 3.6%, health and beauty rising 6.3%, and entertainment gaining 3.5%, boosted by strong cinema attendance.
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