A new poll from More in Common paints a dramatic picture of Britain’s fragmented political landscape, with Reform UK on the brink of forming a government while the two traditional main parties languish in the doldrums.
According to the poll, conducted throughout March 2026 with a sample of 15,482 respondents, Reform UK would secure 324 seats if a general election were held today, just one short of the 325 needed for an outright majority in the House of Commons.
That would represent a staggering gain of 319 seats compared to the 2024 general election result.
Labour, which stormed to a landslide victory less than two years ago, would be reduced to just 101 seats, a catastrophic loss of 310 seats from 2024. The Conservatives would fare little better, projected to win only 81 seats, down 40 from their already dismal performance two years ago.
Vote shares and the power of fragmentation
On national vote share, Reform leads with 28%, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives on 21% and Labour on 20%. The Liberal Democrats are on 13%, while the Greens surge to 12%, enough to quadruple their parliamentary representation to 22 seats. The SNP would take 26 seats in Scotland, Plaid Cymru 5 in Wales, and others 10.
The MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) model highlights how Britain’s first-past-the-post system interacts with a deeply divided electorate.
Reform’s seats come from a remarkably broad geographic spread: coastal Essex, the Red Wall in northern England, university towns, parts of the Scottish Highlands, and even breakthroughs in outer east London. Many of these victories would occur in multi-way marginals where Reform wins with under 40% of the vote.
Labour squeezed on two fronts
More in Common UK Director Luke Tryl said the results show Labour facing a “very real war on two fronts”, hemorrhaging seats to Reform in its traditional heartlands while coming under intense pressure from the Greens in progressive urban areas.
“Labour may breathe a sigh of relief they are back above 100 seats in this latest projection, while Reform have slipped back and would now just sit on the cusp of a majority,” Tryl noted.
“But if anything what this latest model shows is that Labour, in a mirror of what faced the Tories in 2024, now faces losing hundreds of seats to Reform, while at the same time being threatened by the Greens in their former urban strongholds.”
High-profile Labour figures could be at risk, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper to Reform, and several cabinet ministers to the Greens.
The projection marks a slip for Reform from More in Common’s January 2026 MRP, which had them on course for a comfortable majority. The party has lost a net 57 seats since then, shedding ground to both the Conservatives (mainly in shire counties) and Labour (in some urban northern seats).
Analysts point to possible factors including the “Trump effect” and high-profile controversies that may have alienated some wavering voters. Tryl suggested Reform will be looking for a strong performance in upcoming local elections to regain momentum.
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