‘Boriswave’ will cost every British family £20,000, new report claims
A new analysis by Reform UK warns that the surge in immigration under Boris Johnson and his Conservative successors, dubbed the “Boriswave”, could impose a staggering £622.5 billion fiscal burden on the UK taxpayer by 2085 in real terms.
The party claims this equates to roughly £20,000 per British household, describing it as a “fiscal time bomb” that risks bankrupting public services.
According to the report, The Cost of the Boriswave, compiled by Reform’s policy director Amar Johal, around 1.6 million to 2.2 million people who arrived on long-term visas between 2021 and 2024 are on track to qualify for indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
This status grants full access to the welfare state, including benefits such as Universal Credit, child benefit, and disability payments, as well as NHS care, education, social care, childcare, and associated infrastructure costs like housing, roads, hospitals, and sanitation.
Reform UK’s home affairs spokesman, Zia Yusuf, said the figures highlight a looming disaster.
“We are standing on the edge of a fiscal disaster. The Boriswave is a legacy of Tory incompetence and Labour’s open border ideology.
“Reform UK will stop the rot, protect the taxpayer and ensure that British households aren’t forced to pick up the £20,000 tab for a decade of failed Westminster policy.”
Scale of the influx
Under Johnson and subsequent Tory leaders, the UK issued 3.8 million long-term visas, resulting in a net migration influx of approximately 2.6 million people.
Annual net migration more than doubled compared to the previous decade, peaking at a record 944,000 in the year ending March 2023.
The composition differed markedly from earlier waves, with Reform arguing that only about one in six arrivals came as workers on standard work visas.
Many entered through routes tied to post-Covid labour shortages, including health and care visas, student visas, and dependants. Johnson’s government liberalised aspects of the post-Brexit points-based system, such as lowering salary thresholds for shortage occupations — to address workforce gaps in sectors like social care and the NHS after the pandemic.
Reform’s analysis projects the £622.5 billion total cost until 2085 covers:
- Welfare benefits (Universal Credit, child benefit, disability payments)
- NHS healthcare usage
- Education, social care, and childcare
- Capital investment in infrastructure to accommodate population growth
Critics, including Reform, accuse the Conservatives of a “historic betrayal,” pointing to repeated manifesto pledges to reduce immigration that were not met.
Johnson has previously defended the policies as necessary to fill labour shortages and support economic recovery, framing it partly as a form of “human quantitative easing” to manage post-lockdown pressures.
