Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is facing mounting pressure to soften controversial plans to extend the qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) for hundreds of thousands of migrants already in the UK, after a high-profile intervention from former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.
The Telegraph reports that there is increased scrutiny as to whether the government will proceed with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposal to double the standard wait time for permanent settlement from five years to 10 years – a move that would apply retrospectively to around 1.6 million people who arrived after 2021 during the so-called “Boriswave” of high net migration under the previous Conservative government.
Rayner, widely viewed as a potential leadership challenger to Starmer, launched a fierce attack on the reforms on Tuesday, describing them as “un-British,” a “breach of trust,” and an act of “moving the goalposts” for migrants who arrived legally and made investments in their lives in the UK.
“The people already in the system who made a huge investment now fear for their future. They do not have stability and they do not know what will happen,” she told the soft-Left Mainstream group.
Her comments were echoed by Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who urged the party to “listen to what Angela has got to say.” Both Rayner and Burnham, along with Mahmood, have been tipped as possible contenders in any future Labour leadership contest.
Fiscal pressures vs. fairness concerns
Mahmood has defended the changes as essential to curb a projected £10 billion drain on public finances from benefits like Universal Credit, housing, and healthcare.
The plans target the surge in arrivals, net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023, with particular focus on groups such as foreign care workers and their dependents.
The Home Office has signalled that some “transitional arrangements” could be introduced to ease the impact on those already in the UK, but a government spokesman told the Telegraph that the “position has not changed,” while noting the need for an “earned settlement” model where migrants who work, pay taxes, and contribute can still benefit from a faster path.
Following Rayner’s speech, however, a No 10 spokesman said ministers were “considering responses to a Home Office consultation” and would respond “in due course” in line with Labour’s principles of a “fair and properly managed immigration system.”
Ongoing leadership battle
Any perceived climbdown risks handing ammunition to critics who argue Starmer is being pushed leftward by his party amid poor polling and expected heavy losses in the May local elections, where Reform UK is campaigning hard on migration.
Rayner’s intervention comes as she rebuilds her profile after resigning from Cabinet last September over a tax affairs scandal.
A recent memo also revealed she had previously urged then-Chancellor Rachel Reeves to tighten migrant access to Universal Credit, the state pension, and NHS surcharges – contrasting with her current stance.
Sources close to Rayner suggest she is openly discussing a potential return to Cabinet and believes recent negative stories about her – including one in The Times regarding Labour-funded advice on her stamp duty underpayment – were leaked by allies of Starmer to undermine her.
She has warned that Labour is “running out of time” and “fighting for survival” under Starmer’s leadership.
As many as 100 Labour MPs have reportedly expressed reservations about the retrospective element of the plans, which would affect migrants who entered under existing five-year rules and are due to become eligible for ILR from next year onward.
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