More than half of the population now believes World War III is likely to erupt within the next 5-10 years, a new YouGov poll shows.
The data shows that 53% of Britons think another global conflict is probable in that timeframe. This includes 16% who view it as “very likely” and 37% as “fairly likely.”
Only 32% consider it unlikely, with a mere 7% saying “very unlikely.”
The figure marks a significant 12-percentage-point increase since April 2025, when pessimism was lower, with the “very likely” response jumping eight points.
Pessimism appears broad-based across political lines, ranging from 47% among Liberal Democrat voters to 59% among Reform UK supporters.
Defending the country
Compounding the anxiety, 54% of Britons express little to no confidence in the UK armed forces’ ability to effectively defend the country in such a scenario.
Just 36% feel confident (with only 5% having “a great deal” of confidence), figures largely unchanged from the prior year. Confidence is especially low among Reform UK voters, at just 22%.
The poll comes amid escalating global tensions, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and warnings from military figures.
Former NATO deputy supreme allied commander General Richard Shirreff has described potential escalation in the US-Israel conflict with Iran as possibly “the final catalyst for a third world war.”
A May 2025 YouGov multi-country survey found between 41% and 55% in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain viewing WW3 as likely in the next 5-10 years, with most expecting their nations to be drawn in.
While public fears do not equate to expert consensus on inevitability, the sharp rise in British pessimism highlights how recent geopolitical flashpoints are reshaping perceptions of security at home.
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