The UK is getting its own competitors to Polymarket and Kalshi

The surge in prediction markets, platforms where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events, from elections to celebrity antics, has been a predominantly American phenomenon, fuelled by skyrocketing valuations and billions in trading volume on sites like Polymarket and Kalshi.

But now, the UK is poised to join the fray, with homegrown firms revamping their offerings to capture a slice of this lucrative trend.

Prediction markets operate like financial exchanges but for forecasting events. Users buy ‘yes’ or ‘no’ shares on questions such as ‘Will the US confirm alien life by 2027?’ or ‘Who will win the next by-election?’

Prices fluctuate based on collective wisdom, often providing more accurate probabilities than polls or experts. In the US, these platforms have exploded: Polymarket and Kalshi together hit $1.2 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday alone, according to analysts.

Kalshi, a regulated exchange, boasts an $11 billion valuation, while Polymarket, its crypto-powered rival, isn’t far behind at $8 billion.

New UK competitors

UK companies are now adapting to this model, building on a long history of betting exchanges like Betfair, which pioneered peer-to-peer wagering over 25 years ago. London-based Smarkets has redesigned its platform to emulate the user-friendly interfaces of US giants, complete with graphs and probability displays to appeal to non-traditional gamblers.

Matchbook, owned by Australian gambling magnate Zeljko Ranogajec, is gearing up to launch a US-style prediction site imminently, targeting British users with novelty markets on everything from regime changes to pop culture.

Meanwhile, Plus500, a FTSE-listed fintech firm, has rolled out its own prediction market product, leveraging its expertise in contracts for difference (CFDs) to offer event-based trading.

UK-based Smarkets has also been redesigned to look like the popular US prediction markets.

This push comes as the UK’s Gambling Commission explores allowing licensed operators to accept cryptocurrency payments, a move that could supercharge prediction markets given their affinity for digital assets like USDC

Executive Director Tim Miller highlighted growing consumer demand for crypto in betting, noting that searches for such options are driving some users to illegal sites.

With the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) set to regulate cryptoassets under a new regime by October 2027, this could provide a compliant pathway for UK platforms to integrate blockchain, mirroring Polymarket’s on-chain settlements.

UK prediction markets must secure Gambling Commission licenses, facing scrutiny over manipulation and insider trading risks, as seen in the 2024 general election betting scandal that led to charges against 15 people.

By comparison, US platforms operate under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as binary options, sidestepping some gambling restrictions but sparking debates over whether they’re just another way to gamble money with less oversight.

Now read: How to access Polymarket in the UK 2026: I tried it – Here’s what went wrong (and the VPN workaround that almost worked)