Less than half of Brits think Starmer will still be PM by the end of 2026
Ipsos data shows Brits are uncertain about 2026, with discontent around Prime Minister Keir Starmer continuing to grow.
The data shows that the public remains divided on their outlook for the new year, with 27% feeling optimistic about 2026 being a better year than the one just gone, while 31% believe it will be worse than 2025. Age plays a significant role in outlook, as younger Britons (aged 16-34) are more optimistic (46%) compared to older age groups.
When asked what 2026 may hold for a number of Britain’s leading politicians:
- 43% think that Keir Starmer will still be Prime Minister at the end of the year (37% unlikely). Belief in his staying power has dropped notably since 2024, when 61% predicted (correctly) he would still be PM by the end of this year.
- The same proportion (43%) think that Kemi Badenoch will still be Leader of the Conservatives at the end of 2026 (down from 49% in 2024 who predicted she would still be leader at the end of 2025). 29% think it unlikely.
- Just 27% think that Rachel Reeves will still be Chancellor at the end of the year, with half (47%) believing it’s likely that she is ousted
- 37% think that Andy Burnham will become an MP again by winning a by-election (26% unlikely, 37% don’t know).
- 29% believe that there will be a snap UK General Election (46% unlikely)
- 19% think that the Conservative party and Reform UK will merge (59% unlikely). The proportion who expect this to happen is unchanged from last year, though there is a slight fall in those thinking it unlikely from 64% to 59%.
- 36% believe that Reform UK will win the most seats in the Welsh Senedd elections (34% unlikely).
- Around two in ten (19%) believe that Donald Trump will win a Nobel Peace Prize (63% unlikely).
- The same proportion (19%) think that the war between Russia and Ukraine will end (62% unlikely).
“Britons are split over the prospects for 2026, reflecting the challenges they have faced in 2025. There is not a great deal of optimism about the economy, with many expecting more tax rises and inflation to remain above the 2% target, leaving only 1 in 3 hopeful that their personal finances will improve, and half worried the economy as a whole will slip into recession,” said Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Political Research at Ipsos.
“These concerns are echoed in their views towards the country’s political leadership. While more do think Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch will still be PM and leader of the Conservatives respectively at the end of 2026 than expect them to leave, belief in Keir Starmer’s longevity in particular has fallen significantly over the last 12 months.
“Given the public’s predictions on the economy, there is even less confidence that Rachel Reeves will last the year, with nearly half expecting her to be replaced as Chancellor. Views are more split over whether Reform will continue to set the pace in British politics and win the most seats in the Welsh Senedd elections in May, though, regardless, most do not think they will merge with the Conservatives.”
