England will experience worse levels of drought next year if this winter is drier than normal, the Environment Agency has warned.
The environmental regulator on Friday (14 November) released its Drought Prospects Report, examining the wet weather needed through the winter to ensure the country’s current low water levels recover by spring 2026.
Despite recent rainfall, the drought situation across the country is still precarious following a record dry spring and a continued run of heatwaves and dry weather throughout the summer.
Drought is only over when water levels are fully replenished, and England has seen below-average rainfall for eight out of ten months so far this year. This means that flooding in drought is possible, including flash floods, as dry soils struggle to soak up intense downpours.
The Met Office has forecast heavy rain into Saturday but indicated a higher-than-usual likelihood of dry conditions over three months from November to January. This could cause drought conditions to worsen, leading to hosepipe bans, significant pressures on the environment, and a risk to crop yields.
The new report analyses three different rainfall scenarios over winter and what each one would mean for water security across England’s regions ahead of next year’s traditionally drier months. Without average rainfall, most of England will experience a drought with widespread impacts felt by consumers, farmers, businesses, and nature.
The Environment Agency is urging the public to continue to play their part and use water wisely through winter, in anticipation of another drought year.
- This spring was the driest in 132 years. This summer is the hottest since records began in 1884, with four heatwaves.
- From January 1st to October 31st, England saw 83% of its long-term average rainfall.
- In August, the National Drought Group declared a “nationally significant water shortfall” in England.
- Places are currently in drought – Yorkshire, East Midlands, West Midlands and parts of Sussex and Kent.
- Areas in drought recovery – Cumbria and Lancashire, and Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire.
- Places in prolonged dry weather (the phase before drought) – North East, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, East Anglia, Thames, Wessex, Solent and South Downs.
- The remaining areas are normal: Hertfordshire, London, Kent, Devon and Cornwall.
- Over the summer, the Canal & River Trust shut 20% of its network due to lack of water.
- Farmers’ harvests were impacted and there are concerns heading into winter on feed availability for livestock due to poor grass growth over the spring and summer.
- The dry weather has impacted the breeding success of wetland birds, great crested newts, natterjack toads and the migration patterns of eels and salmon. It has also led to trees, including ancient ones, becoming severely stressed.
- Eight million people are still under hosepipe bans across Yorkshire, Thames Valley, Sussex and Kent.
- Total reservoir stocks across England for the period ending 4 November were 65.8%. The average for this time of year is 77.4%.
- Water is finite and there are competing demands between public use, businesses, agriculture, and the environment.
- In dry weather, water still needs to be abstracted from rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater and a drought is only over when these levels are fully replenished. This can take months – sometimes years.
“There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter,” said Director of Water at the Environment Agency, Helen Wakeham.
“The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.
“The public have been brilliant in using a little less water this summer and following the restrictions in some parts of the country. I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter – even if it is raining outside. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.”
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