The National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) has warned that the UK could see a significant uptick of around 6% in crime should the government move ahead with its plans for prison sentencing reforms.
The reforms, which are aimed at reducing overcrowding in the country’s prisons, include plans to limit the use of short sentences and release convicted criminals earlier in their jail terms.
In the year to June 2025, 6.6. million offences were recorded by police in England and Wales and a rise of 6% would equal around 396,000 additional recorded crimes in one year, the group said.
“We are expecting that while the programmes in the community are being ramped up by the probation service as part of their implementation plan to support offenders to rehabilitate, we expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending in the community,” said Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport.
This was echoed by the Chairman of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, Gavin Stephens.
“We’ve all been in policing long enough to know that some of the things that help people stop offending or desist from offending are not going to be resolved by short sentences in particular,” Stephens said.
“Our issue is in the short-term period of the implementation, there is a shift of demand on to policing. We want that shift of demand onto us to be properly recognised and properly modelled, so we can have the right and appropriate resource in there to mitigate the risk to communities.”
The comments come as the government faces criticism for accidentally releasing two inmates in less than a week. A 24-year-old Algerian, Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, was released from the London prison on Wednesday, 29 October – 35-year-old William Smith, convicted of fraud, was released on Monday, 3 November, the BBC reports.
It comes just weeks after migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu, who arrived in the UK on a small boat, was also mistakenly released from HMP Chelmsford in Essex.
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