Farage leads Starmer in a head-to-head on who Britons would prefer as Prime Minister

New data from Ipsos in the UK’s Political Pulse survey, taken October 10-13, reveals that for the first time, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has a slight lead over Keir Starmer when Britons are asked their preferred choice for Prime Minister.  

Farage holds a slight lead over Starmer as the preferred choice for Prime Minister, with 33% of respondents supporting Farage compared to Starmer’s 30%.

Britons are also now slightly more likely to say they would prefer Reform UK led by Nigel Farage to win the next UK General Election (39%) than the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer (36%).

By comparison, Starmer’s lead over Kemi Badenoch in terms of who would make a better Prime Minister has been reduced compared to last month. 27% say they would prefer Starmer compared to 22% who say Badenoch (+5 ppt Starmer lead, compared to +12 in September).

Andy Burnham (26%) also continues to lead Keir Starmer (17%) in terms of who the public think would make a better Prime Minister. But around two in five (43%) Britons say neither or think there would be no difference.

Looking more broadly, two in three (67%) continue to say that the country is heading in the wrong direction, while 16% say it is heading in the right direction (14% neither, 4% don’t know), giving a net rating of -51.

When asked to score the government’s performance on a scale of 0-10, the Labour government receives an average performance rating of 3.3 out of 10 (-0.2 from last month). Those aged 16-34 (4.6) and Labour voters (5.3) continue to rank the government highest, while those aged 55+ (2.6) and Reform UK voters (1.4) continue to score it lowest.

“There are some good numbers in here for Reform UK, with the public having more confidence in them on the economy and immigration than other parties and Nigel Farage leading Keir Starmer on who the public would prefer as Prime Minister,” said Keiran Pedley, Director of UK Politics at Ipsos.

“Our data also shows the challenge Labour could face from the left at the coming budget. If tax rises are to come, the most palatable to the public are those on higher earners or a wealth tax, such as that suggested by the Greens. As the Chancellor Rachel Reeves weighs up possible tax rises, the fact that these appeal to Labour voters may well present a political challenge moving forward.”

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