A single month’s GDP is like a lone brushstroke; it tells you little. However, when paired together with other months, it gives us an indication of the direction of travel for the economy. And that story is beginning to turn sour for the UK.
That’s the view of Barret Kupelian (Chief Economist at PwC) who was commenting on the country’s latest GDP data.
Data published by the Office for National Statistics on Friday (11 July) shows monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in May 2025, following an unrevised fall of 0.3% in April 2025 and growth of 0.4% in March 2025.
Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three months to May 2025, compared with the three months to February 2025, largely driven by growth in the services sector in this period.
The data shows that the growth momentum recorded earlier in the year is slowing down rapidly as the economy contracted on a monthly basis for a second time in a row in May, said Kupelian.
“Despite the early May fanfare over the US-UK economic prosperity deal (EPD), output in the car and pharmaceutical industries contracted. Tariff uncertainty still hangs over industry like a stubborn fog. The services sector grew marginally, offsetting some of the negative momentum in the rest of the economy,” he said.
“Our main scenario projection before today’s data release showed the UK middle-of-the-pack when ranked amongst the G7 on economic growth for this year, growing at about 1%. Now, with growth momentum rapidly slowing, there’s a genuine risk we slip down the ranking.”
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