UK economy could gain £33 billion a year from tokenisation: Barclays
Key Points
- Tokenisation could add up to £33 billion a year to UK GDP by 2035, per Barclays and PwC
- Base case estimate is £22 billion, with £14 billion in annual tax revenue
- Two thirds of the gains come from spillovers beyond financial services
- PwC modelled six use cases including government bonds, funds and cross-border payments
- The report warned activity could drift to the US, EU and Asia without clear UK policy
Tokenisation could increase annual UK economic output by up to £33 billion by 2035, according to new modelling by Barclays and PwC.
The joint report estimates that if the UK becomes one of the leading jurisdictions for tokenisation, annual economic output could rise by £22 billion by 2035.
In an upside scenario where adoption also increases across major partner markets such as the US and Europe, the potential gain rises to £33 billion a year, broadly equivalent to the total gross value added of the UK advertising and marketing sector.
The additional activity could generate up to £14 billion annually in tax revenue, nearly three times the annual budget of the Department for Business and Trade.
PwC produced the estimates using a Computable General Equilibrium model applied to six use cases: government bonds, fund management, cross-border payments, trade finance, real estate and corporate bonds.
The figures represent gross benefits in 2025 prices and exclude transition, implementation and operating costs.
Higher productivity the biggest benefit
Around one third of the projected uplift comes from higher productivity in financial services, with the remaining two thirds flowing from spillovers into the wider economy, including lower transaction and financing costs for businesses, an estimated £11 billion increase in investment in productive assets and more efficient capital allocation.
Tokenisation represents money and assets as digital tokens on shared infrastructure, reducing the need for chains of intermediaries, separate records and manual reconciliation.
The report said cross-border payments could settle in seconds rather than days, while retail investors could access private markets and infrastructure projects.
The report warned that the opportunity is not guaranteed, with tokenised markets already forming around financial centres that have established clear policies.
UK financial services exports are equivalent to 55% of the sector’s gross value added, compared with 10% in the US, giving the UK more to lose if activity concentrates elsewhere.
“Global activity will move towards the jurisdictions that provide clarity, confidence and connectivity,” one legal and regulatory partner interviewed for the report said. “The UK needs to be one of them.”
The report set out five recommendations, including publishing a national vision for tokenisation, accelerating the digital gilt programme DIGIT, creating a corporate bonds delivery group and clarifying the roles of stablecoins, tokenised deposits and any future digital sterling.
It also flagged risks requiring management, including weaker monetary control if activity migrates offshore, bank funding pressure if deposits move to digital money, and consumer harm where custody, disclosure and redress protections are unclear.
