5 top UK news stories today (13 March 2026)

Here’s your UK news roundup for Friday (13 March 2026):

Iran war may plunge the UK into recession

The crisis in the Middle East could plunge the UK into a recession in the worst-case scenario where oil prices surge higher over the next two months, analysis has shown. Oxford Economics research has indicated that a continued surge in oil prices would rattle “parts of the global economy”, with the UK set to be among those which are heavily affected. The analysis is based on the scenario that the Brent Crude Oil price jumps from its current level of around $97 to $140, and remains at the elevated price until at least May. [CityAM]

Starmer may face more resignations

Prime Minister Keir Starmer could suffer further resignations when ministerial WhatsApp messages are published in the next tranche of the Peter Mandelson files, senior government sources have told the Guardian. With officials bracing for the subsequent releases – expected to include informal communications alongside formal messages like those in the first batch – Starmer apologised again on Thursday over his handling of Mandelson’s appointment, saying: “It was me that made a mistake, and it’s me that makes the apology to the victims of [Jeffrey] Epstein, and I do that.” [Guardian]

UK government watching oil closely

The government “will not tolerate” energy firms profiteering from the rising price of oil and the competition watchdog is primed to step in to prevent petrol price “rip-offs”, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband told the BBC. The oil price rocketing over the conflict in the Middle East has caused widespread concern over how that could feed through to bills, with households reliant on heating oil already facing sharply higher prices. Pump prices have also risen. Miliband did not rule out direct support or extending the freeze on fuel duty if the conflict continued. [BBC]

90% of benefits claimants deemed too sick to work have a mental health condition

Almost all Britons on sickness benefits exempt from finding work since lockdown say they have a mental health problem, according to official data. More than three million people are now claiming health benefits because they are deemed too sick to look for work, almost nine times higher than the pre-pandemic level of 380,000 in December 2019. The Department for Work and Pensions said 91% of claims since the end of lockdown measures in January 2022 were recorded as having “mental and behavioural disorders”. The figures also show that eight in 10 Britons on incapacity benefits now receive up to £5,000 a year in extra cash without needing to look for a job at all. [Telegraph]