Greggs braces for profit drop as weight-loss drugs suppress demand for sausage rolls
The UK’s biggest bakery chain is expected to post its first significant annual profit decline in years when it reports full-year results on Tuesday (3 March), with appetite-suppressing medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy cited as a growing drag on sales of its signature high-calorie pastries.
Analysts are forecasting pretax profits of around £173 million for the 52 weeks to 27 December 2025, a roughly 9% drop from the previous year, despite total sales rising 6.8% to £2.151 billion.
Like-for-like sales at company-managed shops grew a modest 2.4% for the full year, accelerating to 2.9% in the fourth quarter as Greggs benefited from aggressive store expansion and targeted promotions.
The profit warning comes as Greggs grapples with a perfect storm: subdued consumer confidence, rising labour and tax costs, and increasingly, the structural shift triggered by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
Chief executive Roisin Currie has been blunt about the change. In updates accompanying the chain’s trading statements, she warned there is ‘no doubt’ that appetite-suppressing medication is having an impact on the business, joining a growing chorus of food retailers pointing to changing customer habits.
Jefferies analysts went further in February, calling the drugs a ‘material threat’ that disproportionately hits demand for Greggs’ savoury, fatty favourites – sausage rolls, steak bakes and pasties.
The brokerage downgraded the stock to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’, triggering a 6% single-day share drop. Greggs shares had already fallen around 40% over the course of 2025, reflecting investor concerns that the Ozempic effect could prove more than temporary.
While Greggs opened a net 121 new stores in 2025 (taking the total estate to 2,739), underlying demand growth has slowed markedly from the double-digit surges seen in earlier post-pandemic years. Market-research firm Circana showed Greggs still gaining share of visits, but the overall food-to-go market has been soft.
Other cost pressures
Cost pressures have compounded the issue. National insurance changes, minimum wage rises, and lingering ingredient inflation have squeezed margins even as the company delivered £13 million in efficiency savings last year.
Currie has described 2026 as a year of ‘“’temporary pressure on margins’ as the group invests in a new Derby production facility and distribution centre.
For 2026, the board expects profits to hold at broadly similar underlying levels to 2025, with any improvement dependent on a consumer recovery. It plans another 120 net new openings and says capex will fall sharply, shifting the group back to net cash generation.
Currie, who took the top job in 2023, has positioned Greggs as a value champion in a cost-conscious Britain. The chain has leaned into meal deals, breakfast ranges and delivery partnerships while keeping core prices under review rather than hiking aggressively.
Some analysts, including JPMorgan, still see long-term structural strengths – a convenient high-street footprint, strong brand and franchise expansion potential – describing the current valuation as a 40% discount to historic averages.
But the GLP-1 wildcard is new. With an estimated 4%+ of the UK adult population now using the drugs, and prescriptions continuing to rise, retailers from supermarkets to fast-food groups are watching closely. Greggs’ core customer base, often younger, urban and frequent snackers, overlaps with early adopters of the medications.
