Left-wing coalition could challenge Reform majority in general election
New polling data shows that if a general election were held today, Reform UK would win a narrow majority, with Labour and Conservatives fighting for second place.
However, tactical voting from progressives could result in a left-wing coalition including Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, and the Greens foiling this fragile majority.
This is according to the latest MRP from More in Common, which predicts that based on current voter sentiment, Reform would emerge with a majority of 112 over all other parties combined if a general election were held today.
In this scenario, Reform would win 60% of all seats in Parliament, although its actual vote share would be 31%. Reform would grow its number of seats in Parliament from five to 381 overnight.
This result would rival the 2024 general election as one of the most disproportionate results in modern British history, enabled by the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
A far cry from its resounding victory at the last general election, More in Common’s MRP predicts that Labour would only win 85 seats if an election was held today, not far ahead of the Conservatives at a predicted 70 seats.
The data shows that the Conservatives are stabilising behind Labour, as well as a big increase in seats for the Green Party, which would more than double its number of seats to nine and receive 12% of the vote.
Polling shows that while Reform would win a clear but fragile majority if an election was held today, its rise seems to have somewhat plateaued, with only a slight increase in projected votes compared with the last MRP in September.
“Based on polling since the budget, it suggests that in an election tomorrow Reform could hope to secure a substantial three-figure majority,” said More in Common UK Director Luke Tryl.
“Meanwhile the Polanski surge sees the Greens continue to make gains, with disillusioned progressives putting them within shouting distance of many more gains from Labour.”
Possibility of a left-wing coalition through tactical voting
More in Common’s polling also showed that if an election were held today, tactical voting could be a powerful tool against the Reform and Conservative parties.
Based on the amount of tactical voting seen in the Caerphilly by-election, More in Common said it was possible that if this practice was extended to a general election, it could prevent Reform from winning a majority.
If 60% of progressives voted tactically in this scenario, a five-party left-wing rainbow coalition would be more likely than a Reform Government or Tory-Reform coalition.
“For the first time we have explored how tactical voting could reshape the model projections,” Tryl said.
“It suggests the Liberal Democrats could be big winners here – and if that if tactical voting is anywhere close to the scale we saw in Caerphilly, that parties of the left could deny Reform a majority and form a rainbow coalition of their own.”
“The threat of tactical voting, combined with the narrow margin of many of Reform’s projected victories, suggests their momentum may have at least temporarily stalled,” he said.
