The latest inflation data provides more evidence that the UK is over the hump, just one week out from the Budget. It also narrows the gap with the UK’s European peers, where inflation remains considerably lower, says Jake Finney (Senior Economist at PwC).
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to October 2025, down from 3.8% in September, data published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday (19 November) shows.
On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% in October 2025, compared with a rise of 0.6% in October 2024, the statistics body said.
While any single data point should be treated with caution, the Bank of England will be encouraged to see headline, core, and services inflation all declining, said Finney.
“Food and drink inflation is the one clear blemish. It rose from 4.5% to 4.9%, delivering the largest upward contribution to the headline rate. This matters because food prices are highly salient for households and play an important role in shaping inflation expectations,” he said.
“They also move broadly in line with catering prices, which account for 40% of the Bank’s closely watched measure of core services inflation. The only consolation is that food and drink inflation remains slightly below the Bank’s projection of 5%.”
With inflation easing at a similar pace to the Bank of England’s expectations, a December rate cut cannot be ruled out, said Finney.
“The question is whether the MPC has enough confidence that inflation has turned decisively, or whether it will wait for the new year to ensure price pressures are not about to resurface.
“If, as widely expected, the Chancellor confirms a tighter fiscal stance next week, that would give the Bank more room to lower rates to support economic activity.”
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