Here is the expected minimum wage for the UK from 2026

The government has published the Low Pay Commission’s remit for the rates of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) and National Living Wage (NLW) that will apply from April 2026.

“The government is committed to raising the living standards of working people, and this is the key focus of the Government’s Growth Mission. That is why the Government asks the Low Pay Commission to ensure that the National Living Wage rate does not drop below two-thirds of UK median earnings for workers in the National Living Wage population, a recognised measure of low hourly pay,” it said in an accompanying statement.

“The Low Pay Commission should take into account the cost of living, inflation forecasts between April 2026 and April 2027, the impact on the labour market, business and competitiveness, and carefully consider wider macroeconomic conditions.”

The government’s central estimate is that an NLW increase to £12.71 (4.1%) would ensure the NLW does not fall below two-thirds of median earnings.

However, predicting this figure is challenging, so the government projects a range around a central estimate, which runs from £12.55 to £12.86.

Shifting upwards

Both the central estimate and the ranges around it have increased since the previous estimates the government published alongside its consultation in May.

Its central estimate then was £12.65 (3.6%), with a range of £12.50 to £12.80. The reasons for the increase are twofold: average wage growth has proven stronger than forecast so far this year, and, as a consequence, forecasts for wage growth in 2025 have also increased.

If wage growth continues to outperform forecasts, then the government’s central estimate (and the range around it) may continue to rise over the rest of the year.

The estimates published here assume that year-on-year wage growth was 5.1% in May 2025, and that year-ended wage growth is forecast to be 3.9% and 3% in 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q4, respectively.