Polls show a potential return for Boris Johnson as Badenoch hits new lows
Kemi Badenoch’s leadership has never been on solid ground, and now it’s clear that public sentiment around the Conservative leader is reaching new lows.
This is one of the key findings from a new analysis published by YouGov on Wednesday (4 June), which shows that in recent weeks, the Conservative party has also posted its lowest ever YouGov voting intention result, while Badenoch herself has recorded her lowest net favourability ratings to date.
The data shows just one in six Britons (16%) say Badenoch has done a good job as Conservative leader, compared to 51% saying that she has done a bad job.
While Conservatives are naturally more positive about her performance, just 50% of those currently intending to vote for the party believe she’s done a good job, while 22% say she’s done badly.
And among all those who voted Conservative last year, the proportion saying she has done well falls to 42%, while 31% assess her leadership to have gone poorly.
An unconvincing Prime Minister
When it comes to whether Badenoch looks like a prime minister in waiting, one of the central aspects of her job, Britons are even more critical.
Just 10% of the public say she looks prime ministerial, down 4 points since February, while two-thirds (65%) believe she does not, up 10 points.
Even among current Conservatives, the most favourable group to her, nearly half (45%) say Badenoch does not look like a prime minister in waiting, outnumbering the 31% who feel she does.
Alongside this poor reception to her leadership, the British public also tends to suspect she won’t be around for long: just 25% believe Badenoch is likely to still be leader of her party by the time of the next election.
Even among current Conservative voters, fewer than half (44%) think they are likely to get the chance to try and put Badenoch in Downing Street.
The end of the Tories?
The Tories’ problems aren’t solely limited to Kemi Badenoch. Only 5% of Britons would describe the Conservatives as being in a strong state at the moment, compared to 81% saying the party is in a weak state, including 43% who believe the Tories are in a very weak state.
Having been overtaken by Reform UK at the recent local elections and in the opinion polls, the Conservatives’ concern is that they will be supplanted as the largest party of the right at the next general election, an event that could mark the beginning of the end for the Tories, YouGov said.
The group’s data shows that most Britons (63%) do indeed expect Reform UK to take a greater tally of seats at the next national vote, compared to just 22% who see Farage’s party as overtaking the Conservatives as unlikely.
A way back for Johnson
For some Conservatives, the solution to the party’s woes is to bring back Boris Johnson, their last leader to win an election.
Regardless of the logistical issues of a Johnson comeback, there are some ways in which the desire is understandable, YouGov said.
Not only is Johnson’s premiership well-regarded by current Conservative voters, with 69% believing he did a good job as prime minister, putting him roughly on a par with David Cameron (71%) and Rishi Sunak (76%), but he is the only recent prime minister which a majority of current Reform UK voters (57%) believe did well in office.
These voter groups also tend to feel Johnson would make a good leader if he returned, though the view is far from unanimous. While 59% of current Conservatives feel he would do a good job, nearly a third (31%) believe he would do a bad job, more than the number who give the same verdict about Kemi Badenoch’s current leadership.
Likewise, for half of the current Reform UK voters (49%) who believe Johnson would make a good Conservative leader, four in ten (39%) believe he would do a poor job.
A recognition problem
Although a Boris Johnson return would not be a total solution to the Tories’ problems, more Britons and more current Conservative voters feel he would do a good job as leader than any of the other contenders polled.
Partly, this is down to greater recognition. Only around half of Britons (48-52%) have an opinion either way on the abilities of James Cleverly or Robert Jenrick, who were the other two main candidates in the leadership election Badenoch won.
But even with this caveat, there is an important distinction in the appeals of the two. Jenrick has greater appeal to Reform UK voters, who are 14 points more likely to see him as being a good potential leader (35%) than a bad one (21%), whereas on Cleverly they are divided 23% to 26%. T
he former foreign and home secretary, by contrast, appeals more to Labour and Lib Dem voters, with 25-26% saying he would do a good job, relative to 12-15% saying so of Jenrick (although overall more still think Cleverly would do a bad job than a good one).
Among current Conservatives, four in ten (41%) believe either contender would do a good job.
