Burnham is coming for Starmer – but not just yet
Key Points
- Andy Burnham will not immediately challenge Sir Keir Starmer even if he wins the Makerfield by-election on 18 June, with allies favouring an orderly transition over a snap coup, per the Financial Times.
- The seat was vacated by Josh Simons on 14 May specifically to hand Burnham a Commons seat - the one credential he needs to stand for the Labour leadership.
- More than 95 Labour MPs have called on Starmer to quit or name a departure date; a challenger needs 81 MP signatures to trigger a formal contest.
- Survation's first poll put Burnham just three points ahead (43% to 40%), with Reform leading by eleven on a generic ballot.
- Reform's vote is being split by Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain, while Farage faces scrutiny over a £5mn donation from Christopher Harborne.
Andy Burnham will not move immediately to topple Prime Minister Keir Starmer even if he wins Thursday’s Makerfield by-election, with the Greater Manchester mayor’s allies pressing for an orderly transfer of power rather than a snap coup, the Financial Times reports.
Colleagues of the mayor have played down suggestions that Burnham would launch a leadership challenge on Friday morning if, as polling indicates, he sees off Reform UK and is returned to the Commons.
Some told the FT he would hold fire for at least 72 hours, with one close ally insisting the mayor “isn’t bloodthirsty” and that Starmer must be given room to reach his own decision.
Burnham’s preferred route, the paper reports, is for the Prime Minister to set out a timetable for his own departure, potentially clearing the way for a new leader to be installed at Labour’s conference in late September.
If he wins, Burnham is expected to travel to Westminster the following Monday and to seek a private conversation with Starmer over the weekend.
A crucial election
The Makerfield contest effectively exists for one reason: to hand Burnham a seat.
The by-election was triggered on 14 May when sitting Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to clear the way for the Greater Manchester mayor, who was subsequently selected as Labour’s candidate, with the vote set for Thursday (18 June).
Burnham can stand for the Commons while remaining mayor, but the moment he wins he is immediately disqualified from the mayoralty.
The reason he needs the seat at all is procedural: party rules require any candidate for the leadership to sit as a member of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
It is the first time a by-election has been triggered specifically to provide a seat for a figure not currently in Parliament since the 1965 Leyton by-election.
The manoeuvring sits inside a full-blown Labour leadership crisis. By mid-May, more than 95 Labour MPs had called on Starmer to resign or set out a departure timetable, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting, four junior ministers including Jess Phillips, and four ministerial aides had resigned in protest.
To force a contest, a challenger needs the signatures of 81 Labour MPs – a threshold Burnham’s camp expects to clear comfortably.
Starmer has refused to “walk away” and dared rivals to gather those names; he is even reported to have warned ministers that backing Burnham means leaving government.
Burnham’s allies calculate the administration would collapse regardless as ministers peeled away, and that, failing a quiet exit, MPs would circulate a fresh public letter urging the prime minister to go.
A new Prime Minister?
A change of Prime Minister mid-parliament would install a new occupant of Downing Street without a general election, meaning voters get no direct say in who next governs.
The Institute for Government has urged Starmer to manage an orderly handover to protect both his legacy and the basic functioning of government, warning that the worst outcome would be a leader clinging on while an unprepared successor scrambles into office.
Even Burnham’s supporters concede, per the FT, that his policy platform is a work in progress and that he would arrive in Number 10 underprepared.
Victory is far from assured. Polls put Burnham three points ahead, on 43% to Reform’s 40%, even though Reform leads by eleven points on a generic Westminster ballot – the gap closed almost entirely by the mayor’s personal vote.
Reform’s task has been complicated by a bitter split on the populist right: Rupert Lowe’s breakaway Restore Britain party has been going head-to-head with Reform in the Makerfield by-election, siphoning off votes, while Nigel Farage has kept a low profile amid scrutiny of a £5 million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne.
At a Monday press conference, Reform’s Robert Jenrick tried to fire up support by pledging to scrap the government’s rise in employers’ national insurance contributions “for British workers only”, funded by a new “migrant labour levy” charged per foreign worker.
The Tory-turned-Reform politician declined to cost the policy, saying it would be irresponsible to do so with no general election in sight, while Conservative shadow chancellor Mel Stride accused Reform of “entirely uncosted promises”.
