The UK is planning for 1.8 million jobs it can’t fill yet
Key Points
- A new Skills England report projects employment in 150 priority occupations will grow by 1.8 million by 2035, a rise of around 24%.
- Care workers and home carers top the list with 199,000 additional jobs, followed by programmers and software development professionals at 192,000.
- Software development is the single most common priority occupation, needed across seven of the ten sectors.
- Clean energy shows the fastest proportional growth, with its priority workforce needing to expand by over 70%.
- The report flags a "missing middle" of too few workers qualified at Levels 4 and 5, where the UK ranks sixth among G7 countries.
Skills England has projected that employment across 150 priority occupations will grow by 1.8 million by 2035, a rise of around 24%, in its annual skills report published on Monday (1 June).
The growth far outpaces the 14% projected for non-priority roles. These priority occupations, identified by government departments as critical to delivering the Industrial Strategy, already make up 22.9% of the UK workforce, the equivalent of 7.6 million people.
Skills England, the government’s national agency for skills, drew the projections from its Skills Needs Assessments covering the eight Industrial Strategy sectors plus construction and adult social care.
Care workers and home carers are projected to see the largest increase of any single occupation, with 199,000 additional workers needed by 2035, demand concentrated entirely within the adult social care sector.
Programmers and software development professionals follow closely with 192,000 additional roles, ahead of IT business analysts, architects and systems designers at 70,700, and IT managers at 67,400.
Digital roles are the most commonly needed across the economy. Software development professionals are prioritised across seven of the ten sectors, making it the single most common priority occupation.
IT business analysts, architects and systems designers appear across six sectors. Engineering roles also feature heavily, particularly in advanced manufacturing, clean energy and defence, alongside construction workers needed to support the construction and clean energy sectors.
#Measured by proportional growth, clean energy shows the fastest expansion of any sector. Its priority occupation workforce needs to increase by over 70% from current levels.
Defence follows at 58.1% and life sciences at 44%. In absolute terms, the sectors needing the most additional people are construction at 493,000 priority occupation roles, creative industries at 416,000, and adult social care at 281,000.
The missing middle
The report identifies a “missing middle” as a key challenge. Too few people are qualified at Levels 4 and 5, the technical qualifications above A Levels but below a full degree.
While the UK compares favourably internationally on the proportion of young people educated to degree level, it ranks sixth among G7 countries for the share of adults aged 25 to 64 whose highest qualification sits at Level 4 or 5.
Skills England said addressing this will require better access to higher education and stronger progression from Level 3.
Most of the projected job growth will require higher level qualifications. Around 62% of the additional jobs are expected to be filled by people qualified at Level 4 or above, with the remaining 38% at Levels 2 or 3.
The split varies by sector, with Levels 2 and 3 skills central to adult social care, clean energy and construction at 79%, 59% and 59% respectively.
Skills England warned that the education pipeline alone will be insufficient to meet demand, meaning significant reskilling of the existing workforce will be essential.
The agency said it is working across government to feed its analysis into sector-led Jobs Plans, which set out how each priority sector will tackle workforce shortages.
