New polls show the Tories are in big trouble
It has been a difficult year for the Conservatives, with the party now in a worse place than after their record election defeat last year and showing few signs of recovering.
New data from YouGov shows they would win just 45 seats were an election held tomorrow, reducing them to being the fourth-largest party in parliament.
At present, just 11% of the public believe the Conservatives, who have long viewed themselves as the ‘natural party of government’, are ready for a return to power, while 70% of Britons say they are not.
Even among Conservative voters, just a third (32%) think the party are ready for government, while half (49%) feel the party is yet to reach this stage. No more than 9% of voters for any other major party see the Conservatives as fit for office.
Despite not feeling that the Tories are ready for a return to government, Britons don’t particularly agree with recent Conservative to Reform UK defector Danny Kruger’s view that the Tories are “over as a national party” and that it is “too late” to save the party under a new leader.
Nearly half of Britons (45%) believe it’s likely that the Conservatives will still be a major party with good chances of winning general elections in a decade’s time, more than the 35% who feel this is unlikely, while just 21% of the public think it’s likely the Tories will no longer be a major party in ten years’ time, something 58% of Britons see as unlikely.
Reform UK voters are the most sceptical of the Tories’ ability to persist, though even then they tend to think it’s unlikely the Tories will no longer be a major force in British politics in a decade by 47% to 34%.
Among Conservative voters, 69% believe it’s likely the party will still have a good chance of winning elections in a ten years’ time, although 22% see this as unlikely. Just 17% think it’s likely that the Conservatives will no longer be a major party by 2035.
Key to rebuilding the Conservatives as an election-winning force will likely be focussing on the areas where the public most trust the party and addressing those where they’re less trusted.
At present, most Britons do not trust the Tories on any of the 18 areas polled. Nonetheless, there are three issues – supporting businesses, defence and representing the UK abroad – where they score relatively better, with more than three in ten Britons (32-36%) trusting them at least a fair amount, even if 52-58% do not.
Around a quarter of Britons (25-26%) also trust the Conservatives to manage the economy and on taxation, though this is against two thirds of the public (66-67%) having little to no trust in the party in these areas.
Immigration, keeping promises, and poverty sit at the other end of the scale, with just one in seven Britons (14-15%) trusting the Tories at least a fair amount on these topics, compared to 76-78% holding little to no trust in the party here.
