Poll reveals Reform would win the most seats in a general election
The latest polling data from YouGov shows that if a general election were held today, Reform would win the most seats.
YouGov’s first Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll since the last election projects a hung parliament with Reform as the largest party.
According to the poll, Nigel Farage’s party would come out of an election with 271 seats, a significant improvement over their 2024 total of five seats.
If a general election were held today, it is projected that Labour would come second with 178 seats (233 fewer than its 2024 election result), followed by the Liberal Democrats with 81 seats (nine more than last year’s election results).
Polling data shows the Conservative party completely collapsing to only 46 seats (75 fewer than the last election) and barely edging out the SNP, which is projected to get 38 seats.
It also projects that the Greens and Plaid would both win an extra three constituencies each to bring their totals to seven seats each.
Hung parliament the likely outcome
While the poll shows Reform winning the most seats in a general election, the result would be a hung parliament as it is unlikely a realistic two-party coalition could achieve the required majority to form a government.
Across all YouGov’s simulations, Reform UK comes out as the largest party in the parliament in around 99% of cases, with the small remainder of simulations pointing toward Labour being largest.
It said a hung parliament is also by far the most likely outcome, occuring in around 97% of simulations.
“According to our central projection, no realistic two-party government or coalition would reach the 326 seats required for a mathematical House of Commons majority,” YouGov said.
“Combining the Reform and Conservative total figures leaves us at a total of 317 – the same number of seats which the Conservatives alone won under Theresa May back in 2017.”
During that government, the Conservatives relied on a confidence and supply arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party in order to govern. Reform could aim to do something similar with the Conservatives, in this case.
The striking collapse of Labour’s majority projected benefits primarily Reform UK, with 194 seats going in that direction.
YouGov also predicts that Labour would lose 27 seats to the SNP in Scotland, six seats to the Conservatives in England, three to the Greens, three to Plaid, one to the Liberal Democrats, and one to other candidates.
