Here’s who UK voters say would be the best Prime Minister – if they voted now
The political momentum in Britain is very much with Reform UK at present, following record local election gains and a surge in the opinion polls, new data from YouGov shows.
The data, which was collected from votes on 18-19 May, shows that this preference does not necessarily mean that Reform’s Nigel Farage will be the next Prime Minister.
“While Nigel Farage may be riding high right now, one question that should concern the Reform leader is the potential ceiling on support for his party,” YouGov said.
“Labour may be in a lacklustre second place in the voting intention polls, and suffering from low approval ratings, but when the public are offered the choice of Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage as prime minister, the incumbent holds a commanding lead over the challenger by 44% to 29%.”
This represents an eight-point improvement from 36% for Starmer since February, at which point Farage’s score was 26%. Starmer is the preferred choice of 89% of current Labour voters, 81% of Lib Dems, and 69% of Greens. By contrast, Farage is the pick of 90% of Reform voters, but only 39% of current Tories (28% of whom choose Starmer).
Farage also loses to Lib Dem leader Ed Davey (41% vs 27%), nor does he surpass embattled Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, although he is within touching distance at 25% to the Tory’s 29%.
“The ‘fight on the right’ is less relevant at the national level, as the contest at the next general election is much more likely to be between Labour and one of the right-wing parties,” YouGov said.
“However, the extent to which Nigel Farage is able to coax Tories over to Reform at the next election will be key to his party’s prospects, and the results show that almost as many of the Conservatives’ 2024 electorate would prefer Farage to be prime minister (33%) as Badenoch (38%).”
By comparison, the Conservatives’ challenges are the opposite. With former Tory voters forming the bulk of Reform UK’s 2024 electorate, and having lost a great deal more in the period since then, bringing Reform voters back into the fold is imperative to the party’s revival, YouGov said.
“However, a mere 7% of those who backed Reform UK last year would prefer to see Badenoch in Number 10, as do just 8% of those who currently intend to back the party.”
Farage sets out his agenda
The latest polls come as Reform leader Nigel Farage addressed the media on Tuesday (27 May), setting out his key points of his election agenda.
Notably, Farage refused to commit to keeping the pensions triple lock in place if he wins the next election. However, he did commit to overturn the two-child benefit cap and make cuts to the winter fuel allowance.
Farage was also heavily critical of Labour leader Keir Starmer, who he said had lost touch with the average UK voter.
“This prime minister has no connection with working people, no connection with what we used to call working-class communities. He doesn’t understand what it’s like to get up at five o’clock in the morning and go out and work physically hard for the day,” he said.
“He doesn’t seem to understand that the tax burden, the cost of living, energy bills, have meant that people genuinely have had a lower standard of living quite consistently over the course of the last 10 years.
“He has absolutely no conception as part of the north London set of the genuine damage to the community that has been done by mass immigration over the course of the last 25 years. His leadership, frankly, is dismal. It is uninspiring. It is disconnected from real life. It is, in my view, unpatriotic.”
